climate impact assessment

Governor Kathy Hochul today announced the launch of a multi-year study, New York State Climate Impacts Assessment: Understanding and Preparing for Our Changing Climate, to explore how climate change affects communities, ecosystems, and the economy in New York State. Our policy recommendations based on community partners experiences of climate impacts and well-established scientific data and literature. Limits (e.g., time, funding, data availability, computational capacity) may influence the boundary definition. Climate change impact assessmentsare used to discover how future changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables will negatively (or positively) affect the natural environment, agriculture, energy, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity. Top-down approaches give information on the range of simulated plausible impacts. . These changes threaten future gains in commodity crop production and put rural livelihoods at risk. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Extreme weather and climate-related events can have lasting mental health consequences in affected communities, particularly if they result in degradation of livelihoods or community relocation. 2023 New York State Climate Impacts Assessment. The latest assessment We can't sit back and watch our communities go up in smoke while corporate profits soar. Value-based judgements are necessary in climate change risk assessments. Impact assessment - Wikipedia King, A.W. before making use of copyrighted material. If there is almost complete loss of summer sea-ice polar bears may not survive as a species. The engagement with stakeholders can occur through through mail or phone surveys, small workshops or public meetings. Temperature: Mean annual surface air temperature over the Arctic region (north of 60 latitude) is projected to increase 3.6F by 2050 and 8F by 2100. Jess talks with Kristy Dahl and Jessica Wentz about holding corporations accountable for climate destruction. The shifts in terrestrial and in particular marine species dependent on sea ice threaten traditional food sources for indigenous people. Top-down analysis emphasises understanding the plausible impacts by attempting to represent different sources of uncertainty as it moves through the chain of processes, typically: This type is the most common approach to investigating climate change impacts, and sometimes referred to as a first generation type of impact and adaptation study. , aspects of both perspectives are present where work involves continuous monitoring of its effectiveness with built-in opportunity to reflect on lessons learnt in a dynamic and iterative way. For India as a case study, we use the RCMs generated by the . The types of models available to explore the effects of climate change on vegetation, wildlife, and water vary. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure youre on a federal government site. During the synthesis process, the authors will reach conclusions about the future climate and ensuing effects on the topics and area of interest. The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. This website is the digital version of the 2014 National Climate Assessment, produced in collaboration with the U.S. Chapter 6 assesses climate change impacts and risks to cities, human settlements and key infrastructure as well as enabling conditions and options for adaptation. With an understanding of what kind of changes to the climate, or under what circumstances the system becomes more vulnerable to climate changes, users can look to output from climate models to assess if there is high confidence in such conditions occurring and subsequently modify behaviour or conditions to alleviate pressures should such climate change eventuate. 2 Brattle Square, Cambridge MA 02138, USA The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project quantifies the physical effects and economic damages of climate change in the United States (U.S.). 1. A Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI) from climate change. Climate Change in Pennsylvania. Climate change impact assessments are used to discover how future changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables will negatively (or positively) affect the natural environment, agriculture, energy, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological divers. In the past few decades, temperatures in the Arctic have risen at nearly twice the rate as in the rest of the world, disrupting the region and its people in many ways. If an analysis is to be a part of the assessment, the team identifies which climate scenarios to use, and which response models (e.g., vegetation, water, wildlife) to analyze the impacts of the changes in climate. If impacts cannot be measured in the same units (e.g. Increased drought risk will threaten oil and gas drilling and refining, as well as electricity generation from power plants that rely on surface water for cooling. Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists. 2005. Simon Black In our recent blog post on Loss and Damage, we explored the climate change impacts caused by slow-onset events (such as sea-level rise) and extreme weather events. They reflect the current capacity of the science to quantify such impacts. The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The ACIA report projects that combined land-based Arctic ice melt will contribute a little over an inch of sea level rise over the next 60 years and nearly 3 inches by 2100. The bottom-up style of analysis represents a second generation type of analysis, reflecting emergent needs by the adaptation and vulnerability community to move away from predict-then-act frameworks. It concludes: "In a low-likelihood, high-impact storyline, under high emissions such . Another instance of a value-based judgement is the establishment of critical . Mitigation and adaptation actions also present opportunities for additional benefits that are often more immediate and localized, such as improving local air quality and economies through investments in infrastructure. Approaches to Climate Change Impact Assessment Permission of the copyright owner must be obtained before making use of copyrighted material. Urge Congress to support climate resilient food & farms. Often analysis considers other aspects that influence system performance, so that climate risks are not assessed in isolation of other demands on the system. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022 Ref: ISBN 978-1-5286-3136-5 PDF, 346 KB, 49 pages This file may not be suitable for users of assistive technology. EPAs new report quantifies projected health risks to children from climate change. Even if significant emissions reductions occur, many of the effects from sea level rise over this centuryand particularly through mid-centuryare already locked in due to historical emissions, and many communities are already dealing with the consequences. Hence for each modelling step researchers need to consider what is known, what is not known, and how can we attempt to represent any uncertainties that arise from gaps in knowledge. The system boundaries of the assessment affect the uncertainty in the analysis. Climate Change Assessments. Listed below are a few of the projected changes based on a mid-range emissions scenario. EPAs Climate Change and Social Vulnerability report quantifies the risks of climate change to socially vulnerable populations in the U.S. Quantifying the impacts of climate change in the U.S. Unless otherwise noted, qualitative statements regarding future conditions in these Summary Findings are broadly applicable across the range of different levels of future climate change and associated impacts considered in this report. Global Change Research Program. This guidance is designed "to help local governments identify and quantify opportunities and hazards that climate change poses for their functions, responsibilities, and infrastructure." . In India, the majority of the watersheds are facing water quality and quantity issues due to changes in the precipitation and temperature, which requires assessment and adaptive . Many Indigenous peoples are taking steps to adapt to climate change impacts structured around self-determination and traditional knowledge, and some tribes are pursuing mitigation actions through development of renewable energy on tribal lands. Impacts on coastal energy and transportation infrastructure driven by sea level rise and storm surge have the potential for cascading costs and disruptions across the country. @article{osti_5553553, title = {Climate impact assessment: Studies of the interaction of climate and society}, author = {Kates, R W and Ausubel, J H and Berberian, M}, abstractNote = {A collection of essays assess recent climate shifts, and the possibilities of human-induced climate alterations such as a long-term global warming derived from the enrichment of the atmospheric content of the . U.S. Climate change and extreme weather events are expected to increasingly disrupt our Nations energy and transportation systems, threatening more frequent and longer-lasting power outages, fuel shortages, and service disruptions, with cascading impacts on other critical sectors. GLISA has summarized recent research and available data on the impacts of climate change in the Great Lakes region. IMPACT - Climate Action / Climate Analytics Most U.S. power plants rely on a steady supply of water for cooling, and operations are expected to be affected by changes in water availability and temperature increases. A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences. The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to All rights reserved. The integration of climate risk into decision-making and the implementation of adaptation activities have significantly increased since the Third National Climate Assessment in 2014, including in areas of financial risk reporting, capital investment planning, development of engineering standards, military planning, and disaster risk management. Bottom-up approaches base their analysis on an understanding of existing pressures and demands on a system; vulnerabilities to climate change are considered in context with non-climate factors. Details. Learn more. Climate-induced changes in precipitation and temperature can have a profound impact on watershed hydrological regimes, ultimately affecting agricultural yields and the quantity and quality of surface water systems. If the process of generating estimates of future climate change is seen as a chain of processes, the top-down and bottom-up approach defines where in this chain analysis begins. Groundwater depletion is exacerbating drought risk in many parts of the United States, particularly in the Southwest and Southern Great Plains. ; 2008. Today's icebreakers transit the Northwest Passage with relative ease compared to the 19th century explorers. Prevent nuclear war: Urge Congress to reform US nuclear weapons policy. Publications and Assessment Reports from the United States Global Change Research Program. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. PDF Climate Impact Assessment 2020 - City of Houston eGovernment Center Chapter 3 provides a global assessment of climate change impacts and risks to ocean and coastal ecosystems and their services as well as adaptation options to reduce risks. Marine Animals: Ringed seals are entirely dependent on sea-ice for their survival and will be the most vulnerable to reduced sea-ice projections. Because of the global nature of the climate system and the complexity of the underlying climate physics, climate change impact assessments are often implemented in continental and. Carbon impact, and with it, carbon cost and carbon risk, stretches across the entire business portfolio. Health impacts related to increased temperatures include increased prevalence of: Health impacts related to flooding and severe cyclones can also have severe health impacts such as: Not all Pennsylvanians will be impacted by climate change equally, and many factors can increase people's vulnerability to hazards such as: Keystone State. Fisheries: Warming in the Bering Sea after 1977 has increased the herring, Pacific cod, skates, and flatfish species, and Pacific salmon commercial catches have been high since 1980. Climate Impacts | GLISA Broadly defined system boundaries may result in higher degree of generalization of system dynamics, whereas narrowly defined boundaries, allowing more detailed analysis, may limit the number of system influences considered. Policy Impact Assessments (IAs) are formal, evidence-based procedures that assess prospective economic, social, and environmental effects of a public policy proposal. CCP6 assesses the climate change impacts and risks to ecosystems and human systems in Polar Regions, as well as options for adaptation and climate resilient development. Regional economies and industries that depend on natural resources and favorable climate conditions, such as agriculture, tourism, and fisheries, are vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change. Non-governmental organizations have also identified the value of impact assessments (4). Yet Arctic dwellers from Alaska to Siberia have noticed, within their lifetimes, significant changes in local climate. The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. (also available at. Cambridge University Press. Typically these climate impact assessments have not included a full exploration of the capacity of the ecosystem or institution to cope or adapt to climate change nor have they included an exploration of potential management options. Rep. RMRS-GTR-59. Nate Vernon Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A Guidance Manual for Local Government in New Zealand, Ministry for the Environment, May 2008. www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/topics/impact-assessments. This assessment identified the top priorities below for adaptation action at the state level: The 2021 Climate Impacts Assessment takes a particular look at the impacts of climate change on human health. Vegetation: Forests will expand northward into the current tundra regions. Projected increases in extreme heat conditions are expected to lead to further heat stress for livestock, which can result in large economic losses for producers. Karl, T.R. eds. USDA.Gov|Site Map|Policies & Links|Our Performance|Report Fraud On USDA Contracts|Visit OIG|Plain Writing|Get Adobe ReaderFOIA|Accessibility Statement|Privacy Policy|Non-Discrimination Statement|Information Quality|USDA Recovery|USA.Gov|Whitehouse.Gov, https://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/topics/impact-assessments, www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/topics/impact-assessments, Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties, The impact of climate change on America's forests. Fully 3.1 million cubic kilometers of ice is contained in the Arctic glaciersroughly equivalent to 1.3 timesthe volume of seawater in the Gulf of Mexico. For climate impact assessment, the dimensionality of the analysis is the main threat in scenario design. 2023 Climate and Children's Health Report ISO 14091, Adaptation to climate change - Guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment, describes how to understand an organization's vulnerability and how to develop and implement a sound risk assessment in the context of climate change. Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks. Qualitative or conceptual analyses are also useful to explore impacts. Download PDF. M. McGuire Elsner, J. Littell, and L. Whitely Binder (eds). As with previous Impacts Assessments, the 2021 Climate Change Impacts Assessment projects that every county will continue to get warmer and wetter, with average annual rainfall increasing 8 percent, particularly in winter and spring, while average annual temperature rises approximately 5.9 F by mid-century from the baseline period (1971-2000). While some targeted response actions are underway, many impacts, including losses of unique coral reef and sea ice ecosystems, can only be avoided by significantly reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. A scientific investigation into how climate change is affecting the communities, ecosystems, infrastructure, and industries of the Empire State. Context 2.1 Canada's climate change commitments 2.2 Technical guides 3. Generally, objectives are identified in concert with the institution or organization requesting the assessment. The summaries on this page and the more detailed pages linked to below provide details of observed and projected changes based on peer-reviewed publications and the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). There are various types of climate models, including scenario expansion models for physical and transitional risk, hazard models, credit-impact-assessment models, and emission assessment models.Navigating the new climate model landscape creates significant challenges for financial institutions with regard to managing vendor climate models, assessing climate-specific model validation . Indigenous Culture: Caribou and reindeer depend on tundra vegetation, and will be affected as projected vegetation zones shift northward and the tundra area diminishes significantly. ; Gough, W.A. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Climate Change Impact Assessments | Climate Change Resource Center Ian W.H. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking. 2 Brattle Square, Cambridge MA 02138, USA. Some benefits, such as restoring ecosystems and increasing community vitality, may be harder to quantify. A report on climate change impacts to socially vulnerable populations. 75(3):301-329. Impacts within and across regions will not be distributed equally. You may be trying to access this site from a secured browser on the server. Climate Vulnerability Assessment | Department of Primary Industries In most cases, the intended application will dictate the approach most appropriate. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm, Climate Change and Aspen: an assessment of potential impacts and responses, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States, Addressing Uncertainty in Vulnerability Assessments [pdf], Uso del anlisis del inventario forestal para detector migraciones de rboles en respuesta al cambio climtico, NEPA - Decision Documents and Implementation, NEPA - Introduction to Incorporating Climate Change, Vegetation Models for Climate Change Impacts, Predicting Changes in Forest Composition and Dynamics, Detecting Tree Migration with Forest Inventory Analysis, Climate Change in Natural Resource Assessments. Climate change presents numerous challenges to sustaining and enhancing crop productivity, livestock health, and the economic vitality of rural communities. The impact assessment may engage stakeholder groups to further broaden and deepen the key issues identified by those requesting the assessment (e.g. Msg & data rates may apply. Please enable scripts and reload this page. Explore USDA programs that help producers manage risk to extreme weather and climate-driven events. The Arctic region has long fascinated humankind, sparking holiday myths, motivating explorers, and inspiring people to create clever solutions for living in extreme cold. This Climate Change Impact Assessment is an excel-based decision support tool which generates an infographic showing a simple visual key to the main climate costs and benefits of any given. Jess visits actor and environmental champion Ed Begley, Jr. at his LEED Platinum-certified home to talk all things green. Climatic Change. Our transportation system is outdated and brokenand it needs to change. 2006. 2015 Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment Update, 2020 Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment Update. Observed changes in the Arctic over the last century Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. Reference: ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004. These impacts include the migration of native species to new areas and the spread of invasive species.Such changes are projected to continue, and without substantial and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, extinctions and transformative impacts on some ecosystems cannot be avoided in the long term. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. The power grid makes modern life possiblebut its also holding us back. Demand Congress invest in a clean energy future. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Joint planning with stakeholders across sectors, regions, and jurisdictions can help identify critical risks arising from interaction among systems ahead of time. and proximity to toxic sites or hazardous facilities. A changing climate may increase the magnitude and frequency of flood events and further exacerbate the consequent damages. Forward-looking infrastructure design, planning, and operational measures and standards can reduce exposure and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and reduce energy use while providing additional near-term benefits, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. CCP1 assesses the impacts and vulnerability to climate change of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems considered to be biodiversity hotspots. Approaches to Climate Change Impact Assessment Changes to the climate and consequences for real world systems are typically investigated from either of two perspectives, these are commonly referred to as: 'top-down' or 'bottom-up' approaches. Future risks from climate change depend primarily on decisions made today. Lock The IPCC 2001 report, based on the full range of emissions scenarios, projected an overall global sea-level rise of between 4 inches and 3 feet by the end of this century. A., Revell, D., and Sarewitz, D. (2013). Rising temperatures are projected to reduce the efficiency of power generation while increasing energy demands, resulting in higher electricity costs. Climate change poses risks to seasonal and outdoor economies in communities across the United States, including impacts on economies centered around coral reef-based recreation, winter recreation, and inland water-based recreation. How to Evaluate Your Company's Carbon Risk - Harvard Business Review The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment researchers selected the mid-range emissions scenario used by the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment development effort was launched in June 2021 and is scheduled to be completed by early 2023. These assessments can focus on the synthesis of scientific information and may also include extensive quantitative analysis using models to explore the effects of a number of potential future climates. Climate shifts detected in the Arctic serve as an early warning for global climate impacts. A report on health risks to children from climate change. For these disciplines, outputs from top-down methods may offer limited value when attempting to improve adaptive capacity or resilience to climate change; providing insights mainly into a likely range of impacts rather than on system sensitivities and typically ignores non-climate influences. The development of an assessment often will involve a dialogue between those conducting the assessment and stakeholders. Adaptation and mitigation policies and programs that help individuals, communities, and states prepare for the risks of a changing climate reduce the number of injuries, illnesses, and deaths from climate-related health outcomes. CSIRO | Commonwealth Science Industrial Research Organisation, Approaches to Climate Change Impact Assessment, Choosing from multiple sources of projections, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.003. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Explore past reports >>. Climate Action Plan Menu scientific predictions regarding changes in temperature and precipitation in Pennsylvania; potential impact of climate change on human health, the economy, and other sectors; and. Individual tree species may respond differently to impending climate changes. Locked padlock Explore Highlights Full Report A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. The regional and crosscutting factsheets give a snapshot of the key findings, distilled from the relevant Chapters and Cross-Chapter Papers, the TS and the Global to Regional Atlas. National Climate Assessment Home National Climate Assessment Information Search Download Climate Change and the American People Highlights Explore highlights of the National Climate Assessment including an Overview, the report's 12 overarching findings, and a summary of impacts by region. Observed changes in the Arctic over the last century. ; Houghton, R.A.; Marland, G.; Rose, A.Z. To explore how the warming environment will affect New York's communities, ecosystems and economy, Gov. Impact assessmentsenable managers, decision makers, researchers and stakeholdersto begin the process of considering potential responses to climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on water, land, coastal areas, and other natural resources, as well as infrastructure and related services, are expected to increasingly disrupt Indigenous peoples livelihoods and economies, including agriculture and agroforestry, fishing, recreation, and tourism. Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org.
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